Itron recently held three different Forecasting Workshops starting on Nov. 5th in Boston, Massachusetts. The 27 participants elected to participate in one of the following tracks:
Forecasting 101 covered the fundamental skills required to understand traditional utility forecasting, including regression analysis and statistics.
Sales and Demand Forecasting covered the basics of linear regression and exponential smoothing in the context of constructing strong sales, customer and demand forecast models. Topics included finding the right forecast drivers, evaluating model results and model performance and addressing outliers and serial correlation with integrated auto-regressive terms. The course focused on incorporating end-use structure into forecast models, capturing efficiency program impacts and new technologies.
Short-Term Forecasting covered the issues associated with real-time and day-ahead load forecasting, including the use of regression and neural network models, the interpretation of statistics and the construction of model variables to capture the impacts of weather conditions and behind-the-meter (BTM) solar generation.
During all three hands-on sessions, participants created forecasts utilizing Itron’s MetrixND statistical modeling application, which is used globally by distribution companies, cooperatives, energy retailers and Independent System Operators (ISOs) to forecast all the way from five minutes to 50 years ahead. Participants in the Sales and Demand Forecasting sessions also used Itron’s MetrixLT, a specialized application for calibrating long-term load shapes to energy and peak targets, and for calculating weather concepts critical for long-term forecasting.
The three primary Itron instructors (Mark Quan, Michael Russo and Rich Simons) have extensive experience with the subject matter, having led similar sessions many times and having worked in the energy industry for a combined period approaching six decades. In addition to the primary instructors and me, the following Itron staff members helped to make the sessions a unique learning experience: Fernando Pena, Brien Rissmann and Abby Blunt. All participants were provided with a laptop containing the software, presentations and exercises, enabling them to be fully engaged with the material. The three sessions brought together a disparate group from distribution companies, cooperatives and ISOs who work in areas ranging from long-term planning to real-time operations, thereby creating an interactive environment allowing participants to learn not only from the instructors, but to learn from each other.
You can view the schedule for upcoming forecasting workshops, meetings and free brown bag sessions at www.itron.com/forecastingworkshops.
If you have forecasting-related questions or if you would like to create a custom workshop to meet your specific needs, contact us at forecasting@itron.com.
Paige Schaefer is a Product Marketing Manager in Itron’s Outcomes group for the strategy, planning and implementation of projects supporting marketing functions spanning electricity, water and gas business units. She interacts directly with sales, product and corporate marketing to identify new marketing opportunities, recommend actions and the coordination of targeted campaigns to increase brand awareness and market share where she works closely with the teams to develop content and strategies. In addition, she provides website support, event coordination and manages Itron’s Energy Forecasting Group (EFG), which supports end-use data development, the Statistical End-use Approach (SAE) and coordinates their annual meeting for discussing modeling and forecasting issues. Paige has a B.S. in Business Administration from San Diego State University with an emphasis in Marketing.
